APPROACH

Our Approach

Precision Alpha uses six months of closing-price measurements and the mathematics of machine learning to calculate exact, closed-form expressions and numerically evaluate Market Probabilities, Market Energy, Market Power, Market Resistance, Market Noise, Market Temperature and Market Free Energy (Helmholtz).

Precision Alpha provides indicators of significant price movement with a six-week future horizon.

Precision Alpha uses non-equilibrium signal analysis on closing prices to expose what market participants are currently unable to see: Exact, unbiased values for probabilities that show reversion-to-mean and momentum.

Precision Alpha identifies structural breaks in financial time-series to indicate a confluence of factors that offer a favorable risk-adjusted return.

• Next Day Probability Up: Probability that the value of the measured asset will go up the next day.
• Next Day Probability Down: Probability that the value of the measured asset will go down the next day.
• Market Emotion: Market energy measured from the equilibrium energy as zero offset.  Positive: Bull, Negative: Bear.
• Market Power: Rate at which work is done, in other words, energy converted to price movement.
• Market Resistance: Entropic force resisting change to the dominant price direction.
• Market Noise: Diffusion that dissipates market energy (analogous to strain or viscosity) so that less energy is used to generate price movement.
• Market Temperature: Entropic temperature as defined by thermodynamics.  When associated with (Helmholtz) Free Energy, a heat cycle is observed that identifies entry and exit points.
• Market Free Entropy: The (Helmholtz) Free Energy is the energy available to do price movement work.  With the Market Temperature, optimal entry and exit points are identified.

The Sharpe ratio is defined using statistical expressions, namely, the average return and the standard deviation. It is clear, however, that financial markets are not in statistical equilibrium, and this measure is misleading in most financial markets. The non-equilibrium generalization of the Sharpe ratio can be shown to be always greater than the equilibrium case. Therefore we call the non-equilibrium expression a “Sharper ratio”, and is defined as the ratio of the expected PL minus the risk-free return, divided by the expected PL minus the average return.