Our signals are interrelated and, when used together, expose extraordinary insights into alpha.

Next-Day Probability (precise probability of a next day up or down price move).

Market Power (the ability of the market to raise or lower the price of an asset).

Market Resistance (increasing resistance reduces Market Power).

Market Noise (increasing noise reduces the efficiency of Market Power).

Exposing Alpha – QQQ Example

Prediction:

Our Signals exposed the 7% March 2018 NASDAQ correction BEFORE it occurred.

Observation:

Market Power supporting Bull Dominant QQQ declined by more than 50%

From 451 to 198 on March 12. Yet the Closing Price for QQQ was still near its recent high.

173 3/12 vs 171 3/15.

With Market Power fading and prices still high, clearly, QQQ was poised to decline.

Action:

Bought 2-week QQQ puts at 171 March 15.
QQQ moved rapidly to 159 by March 27 as the NASDAQ sold off.

Probabilities

Next day probability that the price of an asset will go up (bull), or go down (bear) the next day.

Note – Probability is Bull Dominant.

Market Power

Ability of the financial market to raise/lower or maintain the price of an asset above/below what would prevail at equilibrium.

Note – Market Power falls.

Market Resistance

Resistance to a dominant movement in price of an asset. Increasing resistance reduces market power.

Note – No Resistance to the fall in Market Power. 

Market Noise

Noise reduces the efficiency of market power. Market power is dissipated.

Note – Market Power is efficient. 

QQQ Closing Price Chart

Note – Market Price falls as predicted.

Order Exchange Data Measurements

Our Approach

Precision Alpha uses non-equilibrium signal analysis on closing prices to expose what market participants are currently unable to see: Exact, unbiased probabilities that show reversion-to-mean and increasing momentum.