APPROACH

Our Approach

Precision Alpha uses six months of closing-price measurements and the mathematics of machine learning to calculate exact, closed-form expressions for Market Probabilities, Market Energy, Market Power, Market Resistance, and Market Noise.

Precision Alpha provides indicators of significant price movement with a six-week future horizon.

Precision Alpha uses non-equilibrium signal analysis on closing prices to expose what market participants are currently unable to see: Exact, unbiased probabilities that show reversion-to-mean and increasing momentum.

Precision Alpha identifies structural breaks in financial time-series to indicate a confluence of factors that offer a favorable risk-adjusted return.

• Next Day Probability Up: Probability that the value of the measured asset will go up the next day.
• Next Day Probability Down: Probability that the value of the measured asset will go down the next day.
• Market Emotion: Market energy measured from the equilibrium energy as zero offset.  Positive: Bull, Negative: Bear.
• Market Power: Rate at which work is done, in other words, energy converted to price movement.
• Market Resistance: Entropic force resisting change to the dominant price direction.
• Market Noise: Diffusion that dissipates market energy so that it is not used to generate price movement.

The Sharpe ratio is defined using statistical expressions, namely, the average return and the standard deviation. It is clear, however, that financial markets are not in statistical equilibrium, and this measure is misleading in most financial markets. The non-equilibrium generalization of the Sharpe ratio can be shown to be always greater than the equilibrium case. Therefore we call the non-equilibrium expression a “Sharper ratio”, and is defined as the ratio of the expected PL minus the risk-free return, divided by the expected PL minus the average return.

Example

Used Precision Alpha to see and trade a NASDAQ correction before it occurred.

QQQ March 2018 – Bull Dominant. 7.6% Drop.

Prediction:
Market Power supporting Bull Dominant QQQ declined by more than 50%

• From 451 to 198 on March 12.
  Yet the Closing Price for QQQ was still near its recent high.
• 173 3/12 vs 171 3/15
  With Marketing Power fading and prices still high,
  clearly, QQQ was poised to decline.

Action:
Bought 2-week QQQ puts at 171 March 15.
QQQ moved rapidly to 158 by March 23 as the NASDAQ sold off.

Probabilities

‘Next day probability that the price of an asset will go up (bull), or go down (bear) the next day.’

Market Power

‘Ability of the financial market to raise/lower or maintain the price of an asset above/below what would prevail at equilibrium.’

Market Resistance

‘Resistance to a dominant movement in price of an asset. Increasing resistance reduces market power.’

Market Noise

‘Noise reduces the efficiency of market power. Market power is dissipated.’